Welcome to another edition of The Mueller Report!
The bulk of the newsletter this week focuses on what Professor Richard Florida calls the Creative Class. But let me share a few other thoughts first:
My favorite podcast episode of the last six months was about serendipity, technology, purpose, and human flourishing. I rarely listen to a podcast twice. This was an exception.
I’ve been reading about current stock market valuations and having conversations with a few friends in the investment community. I think the stock market is highly overvalued. It’s hard to tell if it will fall rapidly, fall slowly, or generally stagnate but the odds of it continuing strong growth over the next ten years would violate every historical trend we have from the past 100+ years. I’m not selling everything, but I’ve put some automatic deposits into equities on pause for the time being…
Bitcoin is on a tear - around $52,000 as I write this. Although its price in dollars is volatile, its long-term prospects are good if it continues to be adopted more widely.
I’ve been experimenting with a new browser (Brave) and a new search engine (Duck Duck Go). They were surprisingly easy to switch to and I have not noticed any decline in functionality from Google Chrome.
The Rise of the Creative Class
Professor Florida argues that the Creative Class is the wealthiest, healthiest, and happiest social class. It is also the fastest growing class in contrast with the working class (blue collar manufacturing) and the service class (barista, cashier, janitor).
Although most people in the creative class have bachelor’s degrees, a significant portion do not (for extreme examples, consider Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg). And although creative class is not synonymous with technological savvy, the two are closely connected.
Florida argues that the Creative Class drives economic growth today. They are at the center of innovation and massive wealth creation. Silicon Valley is the flagship, but increasingly there are pockets of creativity and economic dynamism in other places too like Austin, NYC, Seattle, etc.
Another striking part of Florida’s research is the importance of cities for the creative enterprise. With Covid pushing so much work remote, many people have been asking what the future of cities looks like. If we can work from somewhere cheaper and more pleasant, won’t people flee the cities like they did in the middle of the century for suburbs or even rural areas?
Although we can all probably think of friends or family who may have retreated to rural or suburban areas during the pandemic, it’s unlikely that this will be a long run social trend because you can do work from anywhere, but you cannot necessarily be creative from anywhere.
Florida makes the critical point that cities drive creativity. People need stimulation, diversity, experience, and even serendipity, for their creativity to flourish and mature. And this is because companies and societies advance, not based upon a single person’s brilliance, but on the networks, associations, and businesses full of many smart, creative, interesting people collaborating and extending one another’s ideas.
So even though some people can write or paint or program from a cabin in the mountains with an internet connection, they will be at a significant disadvantage compared to their peers who are living near and interacting with many creative people in Austin or San Francisco or Atlanta or Nashville.
And so, if Florida is right and the demographic trends of the past 200 years continue, cities are very much here to stay. They will continue to grow and to become more important in the future. This raises a host of challenges and questions:
Cities have major problems from sanitation to corruption to crime to traffic congestion. More and bigger cities will make these challenges greater.
Cities have often struggled with transitory denizens which means less marriage, less stability among friends and peer groups, fewer children, etc. How will that affect our culture?
Cities tend to be much more collectivist politically. What do larger and more numerous cities mean for the trajectory of political discourse and ideas over the next 50 years? Will society tend towards collectivism with more intrusive and larger government involvement in our daily lives? Is that part of the story of the last 50 years?
What does the economic/creative advantage of cities mean for people who don’t like cities and would prefer to live in smaller communities or in more remote areas? How do they participate in the creative economy?
On a related point, how do rural areas and small towns and suburbs fit into the picture? Are they doomed to stagnation? Can they find ways to connect with or integrate into the creative economy by being connected somehow to the closest city/hub of creativity?
What challenges and opportunities for the church does increasing urbanization provide? How do we think about it individually as Christians, as members of particular churches or denominations, and as the church universal?
That’s more than enough questions for now.
Talk to you next week!
Paul