Welcome to another edition of The Mueller Report!
What a momentous week! The Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and Casey was remarkable. Even with the leaked opinion a few months ago, it’s still hard to believe that the era of Roe has ended. We should celebrate and be thankful for this wonderful news – but there is still a lot of work to be done from implementing good state laws about abortion to increasing support for crisis pregnancy centers to reforming the foster/adoption system.
And that’s not to mention weathering the storm of outrage, protest, threats, and likely violence from pro-abortion groups. I was expressing frustration about how much violence seems to be tolerated towards pro-life groups (or rather how violence perpetrated by certain groups or on behalf of certain causes is tolerated) to someone and he pointed out an interesting dynamic I hadn’t considered. The amount of violence that occurs or is tolerated will vary significantly by state. Texas and Florida will likely see relatively little violence, and what they do see will likely be heavily investigated and prosecuted. But don’t hold your breath for punishment or justice in states like New York, Illinois, Washington, or California – especially since federal law enforcement will likely do very little under the Biden administration
Still, this was a landmark week and incredible vindication of the pro-life movement that toiled for decades with relatively little to show at times. The work of the Federalist Society over the years in building respect for the Constitution also cannot be underscored enough. There seems to be every indication that the court is going to rule in ways that conservatives like (because conservatives like the Constitution) in many ways for a long time – this week alone they had big rulings on 2nd amendment rights and on allowing public funding to go to parochial schools.
I attended Acton University this past week and want to share two highlights from the event. First, they showed a documentary called The Hong Konger that was powerful and moving. It talks about how Hong Kong went from one of the freest countries in the world at the end of British rule to being assimilated by China in the face of millions of its people protesting in the streets. The story is hard because of China’s totalitarianism and disregard for its agreement of “two systems, one country.” It’s also hard because there does not seem to be a lot of hope held out.
The documentary itself revolves around entrepreneur and businessman Jimmy Lai. Mr. Lai fled to Hong Kong as a young child in the bottom of a boat and worked his way up the hierarchy in manufacturing. He had several very successful business enterprises. He also founded and ran one of the most important newspapers in Hong Kong: The Apple Daily.
Mr. Lai was ferociously committed to free markets and the rule of law. He regularly called out the Hong Kong legislature for trying to curtail the freedom of people in Hong Kong. He helped organize protests and would often walk in the front of the protests himself – even though he was a billionaire.
And what is most compelling, and tragic, about the film is that Mr. Lai stayed to protest as things got worse and worse. He knew he would most likely end up in a Chinese prison, but he chose to stay nonetheless. He has been a political prisoner of the Chinese for about two years now along with around 1000 other protestors from Hong Kong. Most anyone else who opposed Chinese assimilation (the jack-boot), has fled the country or is keeping their head down. This documentary is well worth the effort to see.
A second highlight from Acton University was a talk by Michael Cosper, the producer of The Rise and Fall of Mars Hill. He connected the withering of rootedness and distrust of institutions with Hannah Arendt’s idea of “mass loneliness” and why people, especially Christians, are so easily captivated by charisma or by a movement.
Short Observations
- Avoid flying into O’Hare International Airport if your business is east of Chicago (like in Indiana or Michigan). Seems like traffic is bad through Chicago at any time of day. Plus, O’Hare tends to have lots of flight delays…
- Treadmills at sea level are great for running at a fast pace. After running at high altitude, often with a stroller, and with significant elevation change – I could got a minute and a half to two minutes faster per mile on the treadmill at the hotel.
- Markets (stock, crypto, etc.) are up this week after several weeks of decline. While that’s a nice respite for those who follow what’s going on, the overall outlook still seems pretty grim to me. Most of the people I read, listen, or talk to think the market may decline quite a bit more and that we are entering (in?) a recession that will take 6-18 months to work through, not a few weeks. So best case scenario is that the economy may be on the track to recovery by this coming January, but it may not be until next summer or later that the economy begins to improve dramatically.
Problems highlighted by the All-In Podcast
As I’ve mentioned before, I really enjoy listening to the All-In podcast. They tend to discuss issues that interest me, there is often debate and disagreement on multiple points, and the banter is endearing, if occasionally crude. I like that these guys consider one another friends, and that they seem committed to maintaining that even when they criticize or disagree with one another.
Here are some of the more alarming ideas raised by them or by guests on the podcast.
Problems with Russia
Sanctions on Russia that seemed so overwhelmingly successful and crushing several months ago appear to be fool’s gold. Putin continues to sell massive amounts of oil and gas (some directly to the Europeans!) at elevated prices as well as phosphates and other minerals used in agriculture and industry. The ruble, which dropped from around $0.13 at the onset of the war to below $0.01, has rebounded to its highest level in more than five years ($0.19). So much for destroying their economy.
At the same time, the U. S. and western countries are paying much higher prices because of the many disruptions created by economic sanctions. And requiring western asset managers to divest of Russian securities did cause the market price of those securities to decline substantially – is it possible that Russian and pro-Russian funds and countries bought those securities at a steep discount – and now are reaping massive windfalls as many of the Russian companies focused on raw materials have seen prices and their revenue spike over the past three months.
Finally, the war in Ukraine is not going particularly well for anyone. The Russians are gaining ground but suffering significant losses (as are the Ukrainians). The big question is what it will take to arrive at a ceasefire and some kind of settlement. In the meantime, apparently Lithuania decided to block Russian trains from passing through their territory on their way to other Russian territory – constituting not simply an embargo, but effectively a blockade. Such actions risk escalation to war and, in Lithuania’s case, the U. S. is obligated to entire the conflict directly on their behalf due to the NATO treaty.
Problems with China
Besides their recurring human rights abuses, the CCP seems to be playing a pretty savvy economic game as well. They are developing their natural resources aggressively – the United States is not. They have mastered the application of social and economic pressure on U. S. and other non-Chinese companies. The U. S. has effectively been boxed out of influencing the region around China – as seen by their uncontested steamrolling of Hong Kong. The U. S. is not really in a position to mount a vigorous defense of Taiwan.
Many people wonder if China has deep systemic economic problems that they are hiding – whether high indebtedness, problematic demographic trends, etc. I wonder that too – I guess we’ll see how things play out over the next twenty years. My greatest concern, though, is that the U. S. seems to becoming more of an economic basket case as the years go on – not to mention all the internal conflict and social strife of the past decade.
Governance Problems in the U. S.
Finally, it’s pretty clear that the United States has significant and multifaceted governance problems. Even when we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on “infrastructure,” it still seems antiquated (mass transit, airports, seaports, even highways). Housing is a mess because of webs of local zoning and state regulations and national environmental and safety bureaucracies that make it increasingly difficult and expensive to build new houses.
Perhaps even more troubling is the near impossibility of undertaking major economic projects that would put the U. S. and its economy on a much better footing to compete with China while relying on their economy less. Nuclear power plants could make a world of difference in energy costs and reliability (and that is a concession because the Democrats are so beholden to climate ideology that traditional fossil fuel expansion on a massive scale is a nonstarter). Desalinization plants could help much of the west coast deal with increasing droughts and water shortages. But their just so expensive, in large part because of regulatory costs.
And then there is the development of U. S. natural resources. Regulatory bureaucracy ensures that building new mines takes double or triple the time needed to get it up and running and multiplies the monetary cost dramatically. The type of capital required to start brand new mining projects is staggering.
I wish there was just one or two or three bad laws creating all of these problems with poor U. S. governance, but I’m afraid it’s hundreds upon hundreds (maybe thousands) of bad policies at every level: federal, state, county, and municipal. The bureaucratic state has grown nearly unchecked in the U. S. decade upon decade. Every public official has their own fiefdom, every jurisdiction wants its pound of flesh, and as a result many significant sectors of the economy, especially resources and manufacturing, have become nearly cost prohibitive at the outset. I have no big solution in mind. Reversing this trend will take a lot of effort by many people in their local settings, and it will likely take a long time.
Next week
In next week’s edition, I plan on taking a deep dive into my current options and investment strategies.
Talk to you then!